SOPR Analysis

Profit Cycles

Track profit and loss cycles through the Spent Output Profit Ratio. This indicator reveals when Bitcoin holders are taking profits or cutting losses, crucial for timing market moves.

Current SOPR

1
Current Ratio
+0.00%
Weekly Change
Slight Profit
Profit State
Losses (0.8)Profits (1.3+)
Interpretation: At 1, holders are in slight profit territory. Moderate profit taking activity.
Data as of: Mar 2, 2026, 3:09 PM UTC
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Data from BGeometrics –charts.bgeometrics.com

What is SOPR?

SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) measures the profit or loss of Bitcoin transactions by comparing the price when coins were last moved to the price when they are spent. It reveals the psychological state of Bitcoin holders and their profit-taking behavior.

Spent Price

The current price at which Bitcoin is being sold or transferred. This reflects the market value at the time of the transaction.

Realized Price

The price at which the Bitcoin was originally acquired by the current holder. This represents their cost basis for the transaction.

The SOPR Formula

SOPR = Spent Price / Realized Price

When SOPR > 1.0, holders are realizing profits on average. When SOPR < 1.0, holders are realizing losses. The further from 1.0, the greater the profit or loss magnitude.

AI-Generated Analysis

Bitcoin's SOPR sits at 0.997 in the loss zone, indicating holders are selling at minimal losses near break-even, presenting a potential accumulation opportunity as selling pressure remains subdued.

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Analysis based on current SOPR: 1
Updated dailyAnalysis powered by advanced AI models

Previous Cycles

CycleTypeBitcoin DateBitcoin ValueSOPR Peak/BottomSOPR ValueLead/Lag
2017-2018Bull PeakDec 17, 2017$18,860Dec 17, 20171.04Same Day
2017-2018Bear BottomDec 15, 2018$3,212Dec 7, 20180.958 day Lead
2021-2022Bull PeakNov 10, 2021$64,882Nov 8, 20211.012 day Lead
2021-2022Bear BottomNov 21, 2022$15,781Nov 18, 20220.873 day Lead

💡 Key Insight: SOPR showed different leading/lagging patterns between cycles, demonstrating the evolution of market structure and the importance of contextual analysis.

How to Use SOPR Analysis

SOPR is most effective for identifying market psychology shifts and timing entry/exit points during different market phases. It works best when combined with price action and volume analysis.

Loss Territory

SOPR: < 0.98

Holders selling at losses. Often marks market bottoms and presents accumulation opportunities.

Break-even Zone

SOPR: 0.98 - 1.0

Minimal profit/loss activity. Market transitioning between fear and greed phases.

Profit Zone

SOPR: 1.0 - 1.05

Healthy profit-taking. Sustainable bull market conditions with controlled selling pressure.

High Profit

SOPR: > 1.05

Significant profit-taking. Often signals market tops and increased selling pressure ahead.

Strategic Implementation

Accumulation Signals

  • • SOPR drops below 1.0 during price declines
  • • Sustained readings below 0.95
  • • SOPR reset after prolonged bear markets
  • • Divergence: price falls but SOPR stabilizes

Sell Signals

  • • SOPR spikes above 1.08-1.1 range
  • • Parabolic SOPR increases with price
  • • SOPR peaks during blow-off tops
  • • Multiple consecutive days above 1.05

Important Limitations

⚠️ Key Warnings

  • Short-term Noise: SOPR can be volatile day-to-day. Focus on sustained trends and weekly averages rather than single data points.
  • Exchange Movements: Large exchange transfers can create false signals. Consider context of overall market conditions.
  • Market Structure Changes: Institutional adoption may alter traditional SOPR patterns as HODLing behavior becomes more prevalent.

Best Practices

  • • Use 7-day moving averages to smooth volatility
  • • Combine with price action and volume analysis
  • • Look for trend changes, not absolute levels
  • • Consider market phase and macro environment

Complementary Indicators

  • • MVRV Z-Score for long-term cycle context
  • • Global Liquidity for macro environment context
  • • Bitcoin Dominance for altcoin cycle timing
  • • Fear & Greed for sentiment confirmation

Methodology & Data Sources

Calculation

SOPR = Realized Value (USD) / Value at Creation (USD) for all spent outputs

Data Sources

  • BGeometrics - On-chain analytics provider for SOPR calculations and historical data
  • Bitcoin Blockchain - UTXO transaction data showing spent outputs and their original acquisition prices

Update Frequency

Updated daily with blockchain data

Important Notes

What SOPR Measures

SOPR tracks whether coins being moved are in profit (>1) or loss (<1). It reveals the aggregate profit-taking or capitulation behavior of market participants.

Key Levels

SOPR = 1 is the breakeven level. In bull markets, SOPR bouncing off 1.0 from above signals healthy corrections. In bear markets, sustained SOPR < 1 indicates capitulation.

Methodology Credits

Based on methodologies by: SOPR concept developed by Renato Shirakashi, Data provided by BGeometrics

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BitcoinIQ provides educational content and analysis tools for informational purposes only. This is not investment, financial, or trading advice. Cryptocurrency investments are highly volatile and risky. Always do your own research and consult with qualified financial advisors before making investment decisions. Past performance does not guarantee future results.