Understand where the market stands: BitcoinIQ distills all 20 indicators into your Cycle Position — the market maps to one of five navigation zones, each describing where the market sits in the cycle.
Your free trial unlocks your daily Cycle Factor — plus all 20 indicators behind it, each with its own AI analysis, updated daily (Macro & Pulse Index included).
Your Cycle Position reads where the market sits across all 20 indicators. Each zone characterizes the current environment.
On-chain valuation at historically depressed levels — deep in Winter
Market internals leaning supportive — warming toward Spring
Mixed signals — no clear directional bias
On-chain valuation elevated — cycle indicators in extended territory
On-chain valuation at historically extreme levels — most stretched readings
Over 47 months (July 2022 – May 2026), out-of-sample, vs. a fixed monthly amount.
Sizing your monthly purchases by Cycle Position — more when the market's depressed, less when it's stretched — accumulated about 42% more Bitcoin than investing the same dollar amount every month. It stacks hardest in Cycle Winter, when valuation sits near its cycle lows. Two things follow: most of the gain came from a lower average price paid, and the rest from more money going in overall — about 12% more than a fixed monthly amount. Both come from the same number — the Cycle Factor. Measured on years the method had never seen, with no money actually deployed.
The most common way a backtest misleads you is hindsight — quietly tuning a strategy to past data until it looks perfect (“curve-fitting”). We built this to rule it out: we locked our method and timestamped it publicly before testing, so we couldn't peek at the answers and tweak it to fit. It then held up on years it was never tuned on.
Past performance doesn't guarantee future results.
The model stacks more in the High Opportunity zone (Winter, typically near cycle lows) and less in the Extended zone (Summer, typically near cycle highs).
Every row below is the signal our live engine produced out-of-sample — on data the method was never tuned on — and what happened next.
Eight months that trace one full cycle, including the ones where it turned defensive and Bitcoin kept climbing anyway. Pre-registered before testing; no signal changed in hindsight. Every one of the 47 months is in the backtest table on the Live Portfolio →
| Date | Cycle Season | Cycle Position | Cycle Factor | BTC | Signal | What Happened |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 2022 | Winter | High Opportunity | 2.0x | $20,050 | On-chain valuation deeply depressed | BTC bottomed near $15.5k, then began a multi-year climb |
| Dec 2022 | Winter | High Opportunity | 2.0x | $16,542 | Cycle low — valuation at its most depressed | BTC rallied to new all-time highs over the next two years |
| Dec 2023 | Spring | Neutral | 1.0x | $42,284 | Recovery matured — valuation normalized to neutral, still warming | BTC broke its prior all-time high in early 2024 |
| Mar 2024 | Summer | Extended | 0.5x | $71,280 | Valuation stretched as BTC broke its prior ATH | Accumulation eased into strength |
| Nov 2024 | Summer | Extended | 0.5x | $96,408 | Extended readings through six figures | BTC pushed past $100k; signal stayed defensive |
| May 2025 | Summer | Extended | 0.5x | $104,592 | Sustained extended valuation above $100k | Accumulation kept dialed back near the highs |
| Oct 2025 | Autumn | Neutral | 1.0x | $108,241 | Valuation cooling from extended highs | BTC pulled back over the following months |
| Feb 2026 | Autumn | Opportunity | 1.5x | $65,884 | Pullback returned valuation to supportive levels | Developing... |
| Oct 2026 | ? | ? | ? | ? | Start your free 30-day trial → | |
Out-of-sample record, Jul 2022 – May 2026 (47 months). Past performance does not guarantee future results. This framework is for educational purposes and should not be considered financial advice.
Where Bitcoin sits in its cycle: Winter (lows) → Spring (recovery) → Summer (highs) → Autumn (cooling). A four-season compass, not a price prediction.
Where on-chain valuation reads across the cycle — from High Opportunity (historically depressed) to Highly Extended (historically stretched). Distilled from all 20 indicators.
The multiplier on your regular buy. 2.0x in historically depressed conditions, 1.0x neutral, tapering toward 0.5x as valuation extends. Never stop stacking — just stack smarter.
This is a Framework, Not a Trading Signal
Cycle Position helps understand the current environment but does not predict exact tops or bottoms. Markets can remain in any position longer than expected. Use it for context, not timing.
What It Shows
What It Doesn't Show
You've seen the result — and how it was tested. Start your free trial to see where the market stands right now.
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NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE
BitcoinIQ provides educational content and analysis tools for informational purposes only. This is not investment, financial, or trading advice. Cryptocurrency investments are highly volatile and risky. Always do your own research and consult with qualified financial advisors before making investment decisions. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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