Every month, we buy Bitcoin with real money at the prices we paid, sized by our own signal at its Standard intensity — the exact setting we pre-registered and tested — so this record tracks the validated strategy. Here's each buy, when, and how it compares to a fixed $100/month baseline.
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Live Portfolio · real money, since Jul 2026
The out-of-sample backtest · 2022–2026
| Date | Cycle Position | Cycle Factor | Buy $ (Base) | Buy $ (Signal) | BTC Price | BTC (Base) | BTC (Signal) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 2026 | Opportunity | 1.5x | $100.00 | $150.00 | $60,307.23 | 0.00164176 | 0.00246264 |
| Aug 2026 | Opportunity | 1.5x | $100.00 | $150.00 | $63,449.91 | 0.00156044 | 0.00234067 |
| Sep 2026 | Neutral | 1x | $100.00 | $100.00 | $76,890.22 | 0.00128768 | 0.00128768 |
Why Standard intensity? BitcoinIQ lets you dial the signal's aggressiveness (Conservative / Standard / Aggressive). This record uses Standard — the exact setting behind our pre-registered, out-of-sample backtest — so the Signal column reflects the strategy we actually validated. Dates and BTC prices are our real River.com fills; the Signal buy size is the Standard Cycle Factor applied to a $100 base.
| Signal DCA | Fixed DCA | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Cost Basis $/BTC paid — lower wins | $65,670.82 | $66,816.88 | −$1,146.06 |
Bitcoin Stacked total BTC accumulated | 0.006091 | 0.004490 | +0.001601 |
Total Invested | $400.00 | $300.00 | +$100.00 |
Portfolio Value at current price | $0.00 | $0.00 | +$0.00 |
Return on Investment at current price | −100.0% | −100.0% | +0.0% |
Cost basis — the fee-inclusive price paid per Bitcoin — is the metric the methodology gates on: a lower $/BTC means better stacking, no matter how much was invested. Total Invested, Portfolio Value and Bitcoin Stacked scale with how much the signal deployed, so their differences reflect capital, not timing. All figures are net of the 1% River exchange fee — substitute your own rate for other exchanges.
Signal DCA vs Fixed DCA — lower cost basis means more Bitcoin per dollar
We paid $1,146.06 less per Bitcoin than Fixed DCA.
The real record above is one month old. But we already ran the signal across the full 2022–2026 test window before launch — here's that walk, purchase by purchase.
Hypothetical illustration. This is a month-by-month simulation of the shipped Cycle-DCA signal over the 47-month out-of-sample window (Jul 2022 → May 2026) — the same window our pre-registered phase-2 validation covered — at a fixed $100/month base. It is not the real-money portfolio above. Past performance does not guarantee future results, and this is not financial advice.
Following the signal across the backtest, the Cycle-DCA plan ended with 42% more Bitcoin than a fixed $100/month plan. Two effects compound rather than add: a lower average price paid, worth about 27% more Bitcoin on its own, and the signal pulling in ~12% more capital over the cycle — almost all of it in at the lowest prices. Multiplied rather than summed, those give the 42%.
Every month, both plans buy — but the signal sizes its buy to the cycle, putting in more near the cycle lows (Winter) and less near the cycle highs (). Compare the two $ in columns and watch the Extra Bitcoin running total build.
In a real Bitcoin cycle, conditions can swing from Summer to and back to Summer — markets don't move in a straight line. Rather than fight that or insist “that can't happen,” BitcoinIQ just reads the actual data and tracks it for you.
| Month | Cycle Season | Cycle Factor | BTC price | $ in (Fixed) | $ in (Signal) | Extra Bitcoin running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 2022 | Winter | 2× | $23,293 | $100 | $200 | +100.0% |
| Aug 2022 | Winter | 2× | $20,050 | $100 | $200 | +100.0% |
| Sep 2022 | Winter | 2× | $19,423 | $100 | $200 | +100.0% |
| Oct 2022 | Winter | 2× | $20,491 | $100 | $200 | +100.0% |
| Nov 2022 | Winter | 2× | $17,164 | $100 | $200 | +100.0% |
| Dec 2022 | Winter | 2× | $16,542 | $100 | $200 | +100.0% |
| Jan 2023 | Winter | 2× | $23,125 | $100 | $200 | +100.0% |
| Feb 2023 | Winter | 2× | $23,142 | $100 | $200 | +100.0% |
| Mar 2023 | Spring | 1.5× | $28,465 | $100 | $150 | +95.9% |
| Apr 2023 | Spring | 1.5× | $29,233 | $100 | $150 | +92.6% |
| May 2023 | Spring | 1.5× | $27,210 | $100 | $150 | +89.5% |
| Jun 2023 | Spring | 1.5× | $30,472 | $100 | $150 | +87.1% |
| Jul 2023 | Spring | 1.5× | $29,232 | $100 | $150 | +84.9% |
| Aug 2023 | Spring | 1.5× | $25,941 | $100 | $150 | +82.6% |
| Sep 2023 | Spring | 1.5× | $26,963 | $100 | $150 | +80.8% |
| Oct 2023 | Spring | 1× | $34,640 | $100 | $100 | +77.3% |
| Nov 2023 | Spring | 1× | $37,724 | $100 | $100 | +74.4% |
| Dec 2023 | Spring | 1× | $42,284 | $100 | $100 | +72.0% |
| Jan 2024 | Spring | 1× | $42,580 | $100 | $100 | +69.7% |
| Feb 2024 | Summer | 0.5× | $61,131 | $100 | $50 | +67.2% |
| Mar 2024 | Summer | 0.5× | $71,280 | $100 | $50 | +65.1% |
| Apr 2024 | Autumn | 1× | $60,672 | $100 | $100 | +63.7% |
| May 2024 | Autumn | 1× | $67,540 | $100 | $100 | +62.6% |
| Jun 2024 | Autumn | 1× | $62,772 | $100 | $100 | +61.3% |
| Jul 2024 | Autumn | 1× | $64,628 | $100 | $100 | +60.2% |
| Aug 2024 | Autumn | 1× | $58,974 | $100 | $100 | +59.0% |
| Sep 2024 | Autumn | 1× | $63,328 | $100 | $100 | +58.0% |
| Oct 2024 | Summer | 0.5× | $70,292 | $100 | $50 | +56.2% |
| Nov 2024 | Summer | 0.5× | $96,408 | $100 | $50 | +55.0% |
| Dec 2024 | Summer | 0.5× | $93,576 | $100 | $50 | +53.8% |
| Jan 2025 | Summer | 0.5× | $102,430 | $100 | $50 | +52.7% |
| Feb 2025 | Summer | 0.5× | $84,350 | $100 | $50 | +51.4% |
| Mar 2025 | Summer | 0.5× | $82,550 | $100 | $50 | +50.1% |
| Apr 2025 | Summer | 0.5× | $94,172 | $100 | $50 | +49.0% |
| May 2025 | Summer | 0.5× | $104,592 | $100 | $50 | +48.0% |
| Jun 2025 | Summer | 0.5× | $107,147 | $100 | $50 | +47.0% |
| Jul 2025 | Summer | 0.5× | $115,764 | $100 | $50 | +46.2% |
| Aug 2025 | Summer | 0.5× | $108,246 | $100 | $50 | +45.3% |
| Sep 2025 | Summer | 0.5× | $114,309 | $100 | $50 | +44.5% |
| Oct 2025 | Autumn | 1× | $108,241 | $100 | $100 | +44.1% |
| Nov 2025 | Autumn | 1× | $90,841 | $100 | $100 | +43.6% |
| Dec 2025 | Autumn | 1× | $88,415 | $100 | $100 | +43.1% |
| Jan 2026 | Autumn | 1× | $84,142 | $100 | $100 | +42.6% |
| Feb 2026 | Autumn | 1.5× | $65,884 | $100 | $150 | +42.7% |
| Mar 2026 | Autumn | 1.5× | $66,699 | $100 | $150 | +42.8% |
| Apr 2026 | Autumn | 1× | $75,775 | $100 | $100 | +42.3% |
| May 2026 | Autumn | 1× | $73,751 | $100 | $100 | +41.8% |
| 47 months · Jul 2022–May 2026 | $4,700 | $5,250 | +42% | |||
Simulated results. Tap any month to see the running cost basis behind it. Figures are fee-less for a clean comparison; a 1% exchange fee is symmetric across both plans and leaves every difference unchanged.
This is the full walk — all 47 months. To see just the highlights, the moments the Cycle Factor mattered most, visit our track record.
Signal DCA vs Fixed DCA across the test window — lower cost basis means more Bitcoin per dollar.
By May 2026 the signal's cost basis was $9,057 lower per Bitcoin — 21% below Fixed DCA.
Your Bitcoin = money ÷ price paid, so a lower price returns the reciprocal, not the same percentage: 1 ÷ (1 − 0.21) − 1 = 1 ÷ 0.79 − 1 = 27%.
Plain version: if coffee gets 21% cheaper, a fixed $10 buys 1 ÷ 0.79 = 1.27× as many cups — 27% more, not 21%. The cheaper the price, the wider the gap.
The bottom line. The 42% assumes you had the means — and the conviction — to stack more heavily when Bitcoin sat nearest its cycle lows and fear was highest. That's the hard part: the signal can size the move for you, but acting on it in Cycle Winter is yours.
Hypothetical simulation — past performance does not guarantee future results.
This is a real portfolio managed by BitcoinIQ, following the same signal available to all subscribers. Past performance does not guarantee future results. This is not financial advice. The Fixed DCA baseline assumes a fixed $100/month purchase; the Difference column shows how the cycle-aware signal compares on each metric, with cost basis and ROI isolating the timing effect independent of how much was invested.
Get the same DCA signal we use for this portfolio — cycle-aware sizing that scales your monthly stack up or down.
NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE
BitcoinIQ provides educational content and analysis tools for informational purposes only. This is not investment, financial, or trading advice. Cryptocurrency investments are highly volatile and risky. Always do your own research and consult with qualified financial advisors before making investment decisions. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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