The model's value is proven at critical inflection points—when fear and euphoria cloud judgment.
Note: Historical scores are backtested using our current methodology applied to past data. BitcoinIQ launched in 2025.
What the model showed:
"Maximum macro support. Fed emergency cuts to 0% + unlimited QE announced. Global Liquidity surging. ISM recovering to expansion threshold. Historically optimal accumulation conditions."
Conventional wisdom:
"Global pandemic. Markets crashing. Uncertainty everywhere. Get to cash."
What happened:
Bitcoin rallied from $5k → $64k over 13 months.
+1,180% gain (13x)
The model kept you IN when extreme fear caused many people to sell.
What the model showed:
"Multiple factors aligned negatively. Fed accelerating taper, signaling rate hikes + QT starting 2022. Global Liquidity momentum turning negative. Late-cycle warning signals."
Conventional wisdom:
"New ATH! Institutions buying. Mainstream adoption accelerating. This time is different."
What happened:
Bitcoin crashed from $69k → $15.5k over 12 months.
-78% drawdown
The model flagged warnings when extreme greed said "buy more."
The critical question:
Is this a traditional 4-year cycle (peak in 2025) or has Bitcoin transitioned to macro-driven cycles that could extend into 2026?
What the model shows:
Current score of +45 indicates ongoing macro support. Historical pattern: Major peaks occurred at -50 or worse (Nov 2021: -55).
The model suggests the cycle may extend into 2026.
Analysis based on actual model scores calculated from Global Liquidity, ISM, and Fed Policy data using BitcoinIQ's proprietary algorithm.
See all indicators, our AI-powered analysis, and how we help you navigate the Bitcoin cycle.
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