Track Record

Cycle-Smart Bitcoin Investing

Never stop stacking — just stack smarter.

Explore all 20 indicators yourself, each with AI-generated analysis in plain English — or just apply BitcoinIQ's monthly Factor as a multiplier to your regular Bitcoin investment. Or both.

Many investors do one of three things:

  1. They panic near bottoms.
  2. They become euphoric near tops.
  3. They stop stacking when they should stack most.

BitcoinIQ was built to solve all three. By following a simple Cycle Factor every month, you'll always know whether conditions favor:

  • stacking more
  • stacking normally
  • becoming more defensive
The Inputs

20 Indicators

On-chain, sentiment, macro & market internals

MVRVFear & GreedGlobal LiquiditySOPR+16 more
The Method

The Distillery

Distilled into one Cycle Position

Ingredients open · recipe ours
The Signal

Monthly Factor

Your monthly bitcoin investment multiplier

2.0x = historically depressed0.5x = historically extended

Track Record

Never stop stacking — just stack smarter.
The model stacks more in the High Opportunity zone (Winter, typically near cycle lows) and less in the Extended zone (Summer, typically near cycle highs).
Every row below is the signal our live engine produced out-of-sample — on data the method was never tuned on — and what happened next.

No cherry-picked winners. This is every signal the engine has fired — including the months it turned defensive and Bitcoin kept climbing anyway. Pre-registered before testing; nothing added, deleted, or relabeled in hindsight.

DateSeasonCycle PositionCycle FactorBTCSignalWhat Happened
Aug 2022WinterHigh Opportunity2.0x$20,050On-chain valuation deeply depressedBTC bottomed near $16.5k, then began a multi-year climb
Dec 2022WinterHigh Opportunity2.0x$16,542Cycle low — valuation at its most depressedBTC rallied to new all-time highs over the next two years
Dec 2023SpringNeutral1.0x$42,284Recovery matured — valuation normalized to neutral, still warmingBTC broke its prior all-time high in early 2024
Mar 2024SummerExtended0.5x$71,280Valuation stretched as BTC broke its prior ATHAccumulation eased into strength
Nov 2024SummerExtended0.5x$96,408Extended readings through six figuresBTC pushed past $100k; signal stayed defensive
May 2025SummerExtended0.5x$104,592Sustained extended valuation above $100kAccumulation kept dialed back near the highs
Oct 2025AutumnNeutral1.0x$108,241Valuation cooling from extended highsBTC pulled back over the following months
Feb 2026WinterOpportunity1.5x$65,884Pullback returned valuation to supportive levelsDeveloping...
Aug 2026????Start your free 30-day trial →

Out-of-sample record, Jul 2022 – present (~one Bitcoin cycle). Past performance does not guarantee future results. This framework is for educational purposes and should not be considered financial advice.

Late 2022 — When Most People Capitulated

Our Cycle Position maintains its objective reading throughout the cycle — especially important during periods of extreme fear, when emotion runs hottest and pressures people to stop stacking, or even scares them out of their carefully accumulated positions.

By late 2022 the mood had curdled. The FTX exchange had imploded, contagion was spreading, and the headlines had moved on from volatile to finished — Bitcoin, they said, was over. Fear & Greed sat pinned in Extreme Fear for weeks, and the gauge was telling the truth: people really were that afraid. The crowd that traded on the feeling sold into the low.

BitcoinIQ read that same fear as its opposite. On-chain valuation was as depressed as it had ever been, so the engine held its most constructive reading — High Opportunity — and set the month's factor to 2.0×: stack more, not less, precisely when it felt most wrong. Bitcoin bottomed near $16,500 that December and began a multi-year climb to new all-time highs.

That's the discipline the signal exists to defend. Not a prediction that the bottom was in — nobody had that — but a rule that sizes your stacking by where valuation sits in the cycle, so the month of maximum fear becomes the month of maximum accumulation — instead of the one that got away.

The Validated Result

~42% more Bitcoin

by sizing every buy to the cycle

Sizing your monthly buys by Cycle Position — more when valuation was historically depressed, less when it was stretched — accumulated about 42% more Bitcoin than fixed monthly DCA: roughly 27 of those points from timing, and the rest from the ~12% more capital the signal pulls in at the cycle's lows. Invest the same total dollars a fixed plan would spend — without the extra capital — and timing alone still accounts for ~27% more Bitcoin. Measured out-of-sample, over roughly one Bitcoin cycle, on data the method was never tuned on.

How we tested it →

Explore BitcoinIQ

One Dashboard — Not Multiple Websites and Subscriptions

20 indicators refreshed automatically, each with AI-generated analysis explaining what the current values mean for your investment strategy. Charts spanning 30 days to 8 years, each overlaid with Bitcoin price.

BitcoinIQ democratizes institutional-grade cycle analysis — here is what you get for only $20/month with CycleLock — that's $1 per indicator per month:

Macro Cycle

What's the cycle?

Macro Cycle Index
Global Liquidity Index
Global Liquidity Direction
Global M2 Supply
Central Bank Balances
BIS Cross-Border Credit
Fed Policy
Fed Liquidity
ISM Business Cycle

Pulse Index

What's the market?

Pulse Index
MVRV Z-Score
SOPR Profit/Loss Ratio
Fear & Greed Index
RSI Momentum
Bitcoin Dominance

Price & Signal

What's the signal?

Monthly Cycle Factor
Cycle Position
Bitcoin Price & Trends
Bull Market Support Band
200W Moving Average