A transparent explanation of how BitcoinIQ works, our data sources, and the principles behind our multi-indicator approach to cycle analysis.
BitcoinIQ is built on a simple premise: no single indicator tells the whole story. By combining macro, on-chain, and sentiment indicators, we provide a more complete picture of where we are in the Bitcoin cycle.
Global Liquidity, Fed Policy, ISM - the macro backdrop
MVRV, SOPR - holder behavior and profit/loss dynamics
Dominance, Fear & Greed - sentiment and capital flows
We don't predict specific prices or dates. Instead, we help you understand the current environment and identify when conditions are historically favorable or unfavorable for Bitcoin.
We use only reputable, verifiable data sources. All data is fetched server-side and pre-calculated for fast page loads:
Fed balance sheet, Treasury General Account, Reverse Repo, M2 money supply, FX rates
Cross-border bank credit totals (interpolated to monthly from quarterly)
MVRV Z-Score and SOPR on-chain metrics
Crypto Fear & Greed Index (daily sentiment data)
Bitcoin price, market cap, and dominance data
ISM Manufacturing PMI for business cycle analysis
Note: Monthly macro indicators are released with a lag (typically 2-4 weeks after month end). This is normal for economic data and doesn't affect the indicator's usefulness for cycle analysis.
GL = Fed Liquidity + Central Bank Balance Sheets + Global M2 + Cross-Border CreditAggregates liquidity from Fed, ECB, BOJ, PBOC, and 10+ other central banks, converted to USD using historical FX rates.
Fed Liquidity = Fed Balance Sheet - Reverse Repo - Treasury General AccountMeasures actual liquidity available in the financial system after accounting for drains.
3-Month RoC = Linear regression slope × 100 (% per month)Uses linear regression over 3 months to calculate trend momentum, matching the ~75-day lag between GL and Bitcoin.
Explore the macro forces that drive Bitcoin cycles — from liquidity conditions to business cycle timing
| # | Macro Indicator | |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Global LiquidityMacro backdrop | |
| └ | Fed Policy & US LiquidityUS-focused (more volatile) | |
| 2 | ISMBusiness cycle | |
| 3 | GL + ISMCombined macro phases | |
| 4 | Macro Cycle IndexWhere we are now and what to do | |
| 📚 | EducationFull cycle analysis guide | HERE |
Our methodology is inspired by and builds upon the work of respected researchers:
NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE
BitcoinIQ provides educational content and analysis tools for informational purposes only. This is not investment, financial, or trading advice. Cryptocurrency investments are highly volatile and risky. Always do your own research and consult with qualified financial advisors before making investment decisions. Past performance does not guarantee future results.