₿itcoinIQ₿itcoinIQ
Transparency

Our Methodology

A transparent explanation of how BitcoinIQ works, our data sources, and the principles behind our multi-indicator approach to cycle analysis.

₿itcoinIQOur Philosophy

BitcoinIQ is built on a simple premise: no single indicator tells the whole story. We combine macro, on-chain, and sentiment indicators into two complementary lenses — then use their interaction to generate a single DCA signal each month.

🌊

Macro Cycle Index

Global Liquidity, Fed Policy, ISM combined into one score. The tide — indicates the prevailing macro direction.

💜

Pulse Index

MVRV, SOPR, Fear & Greed, RSI, and Dominance combined into one reading. The waves that inform the model's sizing factor.

🎯

Cycle Position

Macro direction and Pulse sentiment interact via a proprietary algorithm to produce a DCA Factor — from 2.0x to 0x.

We don't predict specific prices or dates. Instead, we help you understand the current environment and adjust your DCA accordingly. Never stop stacking — just stack smarter.

Data Sources

We use only reputable, verifiable data sources. All data is fetched server-side and pre-calculated for fast page loads:

Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED)

Fed balance sheet, Treasury General Account, Reverse Repo, M2 money supply, FX rates

Bank for International Settlements (BIS)

Cross-border bank credit totals (interpolated to monthly from quarterly)

BGeometrics

MVRV Z-Score and SOPR on-chain metrics

Alternative.me

Crypto Fear & Greed Index (daily sentiment data)

CoinGecko

Bitcoin price, market cap, and dominance data

Institute for Supply Management (ISM)

ISM Manufacturing PMI for business cycle analysis

Update Frequency

Daily Updates

  • • Bitcoin Price
  • • Fear & Greed Index
  • • Bitcoin Dominance
  • • MVRV Z-Score
  • • SOPR

Monthly Updates

  • • Global Liquidity
  • • Fed Liquidity
  • • Fed Policy Regime
  • • ISM Manufacturing PMI

Note: Monthly macro indicators are released with a lag (typically 2-4 weeks after month end). This is normal for economic data and doesn't affect the indicator's usefulness for cycle analysis.

Key Calculations

Global Liquidity

GL = Fed Liquidity + Central Bank Balance Sheets + Global M2 + Cross-Border Credit

Aggregates liquidity across 16 economies including Fed, ECB, BOJ, and PBOC, converted to USD using historical FX rates.

Fed Liquidity

Fed Liquidity = Fed Balance Sheet - Reverse Repo - Treasury General Account

Measures actual liquidity available in the financial system after accounting for drains.

Rate of Change (RoC)

3-Month RoC = Linear regression slope × 100 (% per month)

Uses linear regression over 3 months to calculate trend momentum, matching the ~75-day lag between GL and Bitcoin.

Pulse Index & Cycle Position: The normalization of on-chain and sentiment indicators into the Pulse Index, and the algorithm that combines Macro and Pulse into the DCA Factor, are proprietary to BitcoinIQ.

Understanding the Bitcoin Macro Cycle

Explore the macro forces that drive Bitcoin cycles — from liquidity conditions to business cycle timing

#Macro IndicatorDescription
1Global LiquidityMacro backdropMacro backdrop
2Fed PolicyUS monetary policyUS monetary policy
3ISMBusiness cycleBusiness cycle
4Macro Cycle IndexCombines all three → direction for BitcoinCombines all three → direction for Bitcoin
📚EducationFull cycle analysis guideFull cycle analysis guideHERE

Limitations & Disclaimers

  • •Not Financial Advice: BitcoinIQ is for educational purposes only. We don't recommend specific trades or investments.
  • •Historical Correlation ≠ Future Prediction: Past indicator performance doesn't guarantee future results.
  • •Data Limitations: Our Global Liquidity calculation may differ from professional estimates due to data source limitations (shadow banking, eurodollar markets).
  • •Timing Uncertainty: Indicators identify favorable/unfavorable conditions but don't predict exact tops or bottoms.
  • •Black Swan Events: Unexpected events (regulatory changes, hacks, macro crises) can override indicator signals.

Research Credits

Our methodology is inspired by and builds upon the work of respected researchers:

  • Michael Howell (CrossBorder Capital) - Global Liquidity framework and Bitcoin correlation research
  • Raoul Pal (Real Vision) - Macro-crypto thesis and liquidity-driven investment framework
  • Glassnode - Pioneering on-chain analytics methodology (MVRV, SOPR concepts)

Explore Our Indicators

© 2026 BitcoinIQ. All rights reserved. Raise your BitcoinIQ - use Cycle Intelligence to your advantage

NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE

BitcoinIQ provides educational content and analysis tools for informational purposes only. This is not investment, financial, or trading advice. Cryptocurrency investments are highly volatile and risky. Always do your own research and consult with qualified financial advisors before making investment decisions. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

v1.0.0 (build 20260425.0937 • abd284c)