A transparent explanation of how BitcoinIQ works, our data sources, and the principles behind our multi-indicator approach to cycle analysis.
BitcoinIQ is built on a simple premise: no single indicator tells the whole story. We track 20 macro, on-chain, and sentiment indicators and distill them into one clear signal each month — so you act on the full picture, not whichever metric is loudest today.
How it comes together
The Distillery is a proprietary engine. We name every ingredient we track — see all 20 indicators — but the recipe that turns them into your Cycle Factor stays ours.
Your Cycle Factor is a simple multiplier on your regular buy — higher when conditions are historically depressed (typically near cycle lows), lower when risk indicators run hot (typically near highs). In practice: $100 × 2.0 = $200.
We don't predict specific prices or dates. Instead, we help you understand the current environment and adjust your DCA accordingly. Never stop stacking — just stack smarter.
The hardest part of stacking isn't the math — it's holding your nerve when sentiment turns. So beyond the monthly signal, BitcoinIQ is built to remove emotion from the decision.
Think of the macro backdrop — Global Liquidity, Fed policy, the business cycle — as the tide. When the Fear & Greed Index screams sell and the price is falling, the disciplined question isn't “how scared is everyone?” — it's “which way is the tide running?”
The macro backdrop is rising — the deeper current still supports prices.
Sentiment drops, so you read context, not price.
A dip in fear becomes a buying opportunity, not a threat.
March 2020. COVID crash — Fear & Greed pinned in extreme fear, Bitcoin collapsing, retail capitulating. But the Fed's liquidity flood meant the macro tide was rising. Context, not price, is what kept disciplined investors buying through the fear — and the recovery that followed rewarded them.
We use only reputable, verifiable data sources. All data is fetched server-side and pre-calculated for fast page loads:
Fed balance sheet, Treasury General Account, Reverse Repo, M2 money supply, FX rates
Cross-border bank credit totals (interpolated to monthly from quarterly)
MVRV Z-Score and SOPR on-chain metrics
Crypto Fear & Greed Index (daily sentiment data)
Bitcoin price, market cap, and dominance data
ISM Manufacturing PMI for business cycle analysis
Note: Monthly macro indicators are released with a lag (typically 2-4 weeks after month end). This is normal for economic data and doesn't affect the indicator's usefulness for cycle analysis.
GL = Fed Liquidity + Central Bank Balance Sheets + Global M2 + Cross-Border CreditAggregates liquidity across 16 economies including Fed, ECB, BOJ, and PBOC, converted to USD using historical FX rates.
Fed Liquidity = Fed Balance Sheet - Reverse Repo - Treasury General AccountMeasures actual liquidity available in the financial system after accounting for drains.
3-Month RoC = Linear regression slope × 100 (% per month)Uses linear regression over 3 months to calculate trend momentum, matching the ~75-day lag between GL and Bitcoin.
What stays proprietary: The formulas above are open. How we normalize the on-chain and sentiment indicators, and the BitcoinIQ Distillery engine that distills all 20 into your monthly Cycle Factor, are proprietary to BitcoinIQ.
Explore the macro forces that drive Bitcoin cycles — from liquidity conditions to business cycle timing
| # | Macro Indicator | |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Global LiquidityMacro backdrop | |
| 2 | Fed PolicyUS monetary policy | |
| 3 | ISMBusiness cycle | |
| 4 | Macro Cycle IndexCombines all three → direction for Bitcoin | |
| 📚 | EducationFull cycle analysis guide | HERE |
Our methodology is inspired by and builds upon the work of respected researchers:
NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE
BitcoinIQ provides educational content and analysis tools for informational purposes only. This is not investment, financial, or trading advice. Cryptocurrency investments are highly volatile and risky. Always do your own research and consult with qualified financial advisors before making investment decisions. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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